Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaa9…bad5 crypto 1525 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$190 (-0%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate94%1451W / 86L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$631
14 days+$570
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +0.3% -9.2% 93% 14% -4.9%
≤30d 357 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 15% -7.0%
≤90d 1117 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 11% -8.2%
all 1537 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 10% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 10% -8.5%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1451 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1537 / 1525
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1537 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$13 -3264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -864%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -5646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$11 -7853%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$11 -11305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $198 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $167 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $184 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $150 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $141 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $150 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $150 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$7 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.35 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records