Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaaa…ca7d sports 619 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+0%) realized +$299 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%343W / 271L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$656est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$206
30 days−$4,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$6,185
other 27% +$5,175
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -41.0% -46.6% 22% 11% -46.8%
≤30d 474 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 48% -25.7%
≤90d 614 -4.7% -13.7% 56% 50% -9.8%
all 614 -4.7% -13.7% 56% 50% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 50% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 41% -18.5%
15% -29.5% 29% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$70 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses343 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$656
Open positions5
Markets (closed)614 / 619
History coverage40d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Zero Tenacity 77¢ 54¢ $70 $49 −$21 (-30%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 55¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 48¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $10 −$4 -37%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $56 −$17 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$20 -50%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $30 +$27 +88%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $20 +$6 +30%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $40 +$26 +64%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $4 +$9 +216%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $20 +$16 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $30 +$9 +29%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $20 +$8 +38%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $20 +$11 +54%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $50 −$14 -29%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $41 +$4 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$3 +69%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $20 +$8 +39%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $30 +$13 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 +$4 +41%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$18 +180%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $51 +$25 +50%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $94 −$80 -85%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $40 −$1 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 08 $81 −$7 -8%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $174 +$61 +35%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $131 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $80 +$5 +6%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$8 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 80¢ $40 11m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 73¢ $30 46m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $14 48m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 42¢ $10 53m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 69¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 61¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 64¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $15 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 20¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 19¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 29¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 79¢ $11 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 71¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 50¢ $0 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 66¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 53¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 54¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 12¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $12 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 52¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 59¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $11 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $13 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 57¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.92 · official $108.92 (match) · 1619 history records