Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdaae…ff8e politics 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$22
politics 40% −$24
economics 5% −$3
tech 4% −$2
sports 4% +$79
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 126 +2.5% -7.2% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 133 +3.8% -6.1% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×11.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage111d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $425 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $302 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $435 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $613 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $278 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $292 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $356 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $330 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $676 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $306 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $298 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $291 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $287 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $258 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $355 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $269 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $349 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $360 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,330 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $967 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 10d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 10d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 18d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $331 19d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 23d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 24d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 26d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $320 26d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $320 29d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $49.97 (match) · 398 history records