Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DA 0xdab4…e253 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,816 (+11%) realized +$2,906 · open +$910
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate84%26W / 5L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$977per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$500
14 days+$814
30 days+$2,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$3,612
finance 31% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.9% +14.8% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 12 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 100% +12.1%
≤90d 28 +21.8% +10.2% 82% 71% -1.5%
all 31 +20.2% +8.8% 84% 65% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 65% -1.8%
10% -1.6% 32% -11.2%
15% -11.1% 19% -19.8%
20% -19.8% 6% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$439 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$5,799
Realized+$2,906
Unrealized+$910
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses26 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage156d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 69¢ 99¢ $1,929 $2,751 +$822 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 92¢ $1,600 $1,973 +$373 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 85¢ 64¢ $960 $721 −$239 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 79¢ 66¢ $200 $166 −$34 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 88¢ 85¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 82¢ 74¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 21 $202 +$26 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 21 $511 +$219 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 17 $1,009 +$255 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 08 $1,523 +$314 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $253 +$50 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $275 +$222 +81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $502 +$55 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $804 +$105 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $704 +$101 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $1,259 +$291 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $51 +$10 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $1,525 +$414 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 20 $1,480 −$1,466 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $2,035 −$47 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $476 −$6 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 08 $497 −$20 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $1,400 +$328 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $1 +$3 +295%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $704 −$656 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $1,826 +$85 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $1,439 +$561 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $1,579 +$224 +14%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $1,530 +$296 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $1,541 +$38 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,267 +$173 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Mar 30 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $1,270 +$123 +10%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Mar 28 $2,000 +$741 +37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 23 $1,177 +$93 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 23 $1,165 +$102 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 13 $1,164 +$13 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $228 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $730 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 86¢ $463 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 84¢ $503 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY No 82¢ $101 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? BUY No 79¢ $202 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,264 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $202 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1,628 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1,837 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $432 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $511 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $303 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 72¢ $510 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $1,026 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $1,523 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 78¢ $1,009 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 82¢ $253 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 82¢ $51 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 90¢ $502 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 88¢ $804 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1,939 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 54¢ $275 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 87¢ $704 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 78¢ $1,009 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1,988 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY No 75¢ $471 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $470 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $476 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,798.95 · official $5,798.95 (match) · 72 history records