Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdabb…f07a other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 23% −$23
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage138d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $114 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $370 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 24 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $483 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 23 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $314 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $520 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $317 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $361 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $242 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $36 47m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 4h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 11h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 13h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $37 13h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $37 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 21h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $37 22h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $37 24h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 33h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 36h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 38h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 39h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 40h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 42h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 44h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $38 45h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $38 47h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $38 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1488 history records