Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdabe…b0ae crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$78 (+29%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$76
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.6% +3.6% 75% 75% +18.2%
≤30d 8 +14.6% +3.6% 75% 75% +18.2%
≤90d 8 +14.6% +3.6% 75% 75% +18.2%
all 8 +14.6% +3.6% 75% 75% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 75% +18.2%
10% -6.3% 62% +6.9%
15% -15.3% 50% -3.4%
20% -23.6% 25% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records