Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xdabf…6318 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$9 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$119
sports 35% +$27
other 18% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.1% -3.1% 51% 43% +11.5%
≤30d 35 +7.1% -3.1% 51% 43% +11.5%
≤90d 35 +7.1% -3.1% 51% 43% +11.5%
all 48 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 46% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 46% +4.3%
10% -13.7% 38% -5.7%
15% -22.0% 35% -14.8%
20% -29.7% 27% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage96d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 22¢ 50¢ $25 $56 +$31 (+123%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 22¢ $100 $49 −$51 (-51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $348 +$59 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$43 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $68 +$60 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$4 +23%
Adams vs. Lachinova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $329 −$315 -96%
Spread: Türkiye (-5.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 19 $111 +$10 +9%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Ada Kumru Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
ITF Kayseri: Jana Hossam Salah vs Lan Mi Jun 19 $101 +$36 +36%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$8 +786%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 20 $47 −$38 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 20 $60 −$18 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 20 $68 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 20 $77 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 20 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $55 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $407 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 95¢ $247 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 68¢ $101 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.46 · official $341.77 · 111 history records