Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac3…f86f other 337 markets active 3h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%4W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$73
14 days−$87
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$311
weather 5% −$25
sports 5% −$17
crypto 4% −$3
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -84.6% -86.1% 0% 0% -85.3%
≤30d 318 -54.2% -58.5% 1% 0% -57.0%
≤90d 336 -52.8% -57.3% 1% 1% -55.9%
all 336 -52.8% -57.3% 1% 1% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 1% -55.9%
10% -61.3% 0% -60.1%
15% -65.1% 0% -63.9%
20% -68.5% 0% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses4 / 332
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)336 / 337
History coverage61d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 33¢ 57¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will Club Blooming vs. Club The Strongest end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 57¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+71%)
Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí: Neither team to score first? Yes 33¢ 51¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+53%)
CD La Serena to score first vs. Audax CS Italiano? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: Neither team to score first? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Bamin Real Potosí to score first vs. Club Bolívar? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Club Blooming vs. Club The Strongest: Neither team to score first? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Club Bolívar to score first vs. Bamin Real Potosí? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Club The Strongest to score first vs. Club Blooming? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Club Blooming to score first vs. Club The Strongest? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Audax CS Italiano to score first vs. CD La Serena? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-14? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-06-14? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -22%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 -37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
O'Higgins FC to score first vs. CD Coquimbo Unido? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-06-06? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IK Brage win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galway United FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Orebro SK win on 2026-06-10? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Málaga CF to score first vs. UD Almería? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 5h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 15h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 29h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 35h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 35h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.30 · official $8.32 (match) · 1690 history records