Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac4…eaf3 sports 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$240 (-13%) realized −$239 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%117W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$206
crypto 13% −$3
other 9% +$7
finance 6% −$27
world 1% −$18
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.8% -22.9% 62% 62% +14.9%
≤30d 21 -14.4% -22.6% 62% 57% -8.4%
≤90d 144 -47.5% -52.5% 39% 28% -55.0%
all 219 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 41% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 41% -21.2%
10% -29.2% 30% -28.7%
15% -36.0% 23% -35.6%
20% -42.3% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses117 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)219 / 222
History coverage113d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 25¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $3 +$1 +27%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $15 +$11 +69%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $2 +$1 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$2 +30%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $2 +$4 +171%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $5 +$18 +344%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +44%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $15 $0 +2%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $15 +$5 +31%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Madrid Open: Ugo Humbert vs Terence Atmane Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4AM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-9.5) Apr 22 $1 $0 -30%
Abidjan: Maxime Chazal vs Millen Hurrion Apr 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $10 +$1 +11%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Apr 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Hailey Baptiste vs Iryna Shymanovich Apr 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $4 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $5 15h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 84¢ $5 26h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 24¢ $2 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 77¢ $3 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $15 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 28¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 75¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Jesper de Jong 75¢ $3 7d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik BUY Mimi Xu $2 8d
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan BUY Taylah Preston 27¢ $2 8d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 87¢ $2 9d
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas BUY Liam Broady 72¢ $2 10d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 37¢ $2 10d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 22¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $5 10d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 36¢ $2 11d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman BUY Shuai Zhang 88¢ $5 11d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 84¢ $5 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $10 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 71¢ $10 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Cavaliers 83¢ $20 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $10 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 94¢ $10 33d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 22¢ $5 34d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 14¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.68 · official $6.68 (match) · 679 history records