Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac4…a8c9 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+4%) realized +$62 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
economics 11% +$34
sports 10% −$48
politics 9% −$24
world 8% +$18
tech 5% +$35
crypto 3% −$43
culture 1% +$12
finance 1% +$26
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 6 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 50% -5.8%
≤90d 11 +7.4% -2.8% 73% 45% -5.7%
all 97 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 42% -13.1%
10% -17.7% 36% -21.4%
15% -25.6% 19% -29.0%
20% -32.9% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 43
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage225d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? No 55¢ 75¢ $366 $495 +$129 (+35%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No 64¢ 65¢ $219 $221 +$2 (+1%)
Japan recession in 2026? No 62¢ 77¢ $124 $153 +$29 (+23%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Meta 6¢ 3¢ $144 $87 −$57 (-40%)
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $65 $67 +$3 (+4%)
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? Meta 62¢ 64¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? Jun 11 $105 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 05 $7 +$4 +62%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 01 $122 −$2 -2%
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31? May 27 $45 +$7 +16%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 26 $56 +$5 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO May 19 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 30 $114 +$4 +3%
Trump out as President before 2027? Mar 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 25 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 23 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Mar 09 $36 +$11 +30%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Mar 09 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $18 −$13 -76%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 09 $11 −$6 -50%
Blue tsunami in 2026? Mar 09 $22 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 09 $71 −$8 -11%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Feb 17 $11 +$3 +28%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Feb 16 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will between 9 and 12 participants make a final pair? Feb 12 $8 −$8 -100%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Feb 06 $20 −$9 -44%
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? Feb 06 $11 +$11 +103%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Feb 05 $41 −$41 -100%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Feb 04 $10 +$8 +83%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $14 −$7 -47%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gros Jan 31 $13 +$19 +150%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 29 $32 −$21 -64%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jan 29 $51 −$20 -40%
Ackman vs. S&P - January Jan 29 $33 +$2 +6%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Jan 27 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jan 26 $12 −$1 -10%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 26 $6 +$2 +28%
Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games? Jan 24 $258 +$75 +29%
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace? Jan 24 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jan 19 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 15 $16 −$12 -75%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jan 13 $48 −$10 -21%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic g Jan 13 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jan 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $18 +$1 +7%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jan 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jan 07 $30 −$10 -31%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 07 $25 +$17 +70%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jan 02 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? BUY Meta 64¢ $32 1h
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $66 1h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 2h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 2h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 21h
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $6 26h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $10 26h
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 28h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $156 2d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $9 3d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 5d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 5d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 5d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $2 5d
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Google 69¢ $7 6d
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Google 85¢ $3 7d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 6¢ $4 8d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $44 11d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $48 11d
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Google 84¢ $38 11d
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Google 84¢ $55 11d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 6¢ $23 12d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 6¢ $1 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 46¢ $11 12d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 15d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 7¢ $2 16d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 60¢ $21 16d
Japan recession in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 17d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 59¢ $9 17d
Japan recession in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.45 · official $1,065.92 (match) · 675 history records