Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdac5…2cca other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,487 (+23%) realized +$1,490 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,744
7 days+$664
14 days+$764
30 days+$804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,145
other 44% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 29% +3.6%
≤30d 37 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 32% +5.3%
≤90d 49 -9.9% -18.5% 39% 37% +9.4%
all 56 +0.1% -9.4% 46% 45% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 45% +10.9%
10% -18.1% 45% +0.3%
15% -26.0% 41% -9.4%
20% -33.2% 34% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 55% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$69 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$1,490
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage124d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 +$33 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $121 +$164 +136%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$92 -90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $144 −$21 -15%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $66 +$106 +161%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $113 −$26 -23%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$35 -68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $524 +$1,740 +332%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $297 −$14 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $451 −$451 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $197 +$11 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $86 −$50 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $175 −$8 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $144 +$129 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $120 −$74 -62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $197 +$123 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $132 +$60 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $177 +$92 +52%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Jun 13 $167 −$19 -11%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $83 +$94 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 +$16 +25%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $124 +$100 +81%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $95 +$69 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $124 −$29 -24%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Apr 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $191 +$61 +32%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 08 $209 −$15 -7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $156 +$134 +86%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $154 +$163 +106%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $120 +$134 +111%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $108 +$56 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $17 +$26 +152%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $18 +$25 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $86 4m
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $83 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $50 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on BUY 8¢ $51 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 5¢ $10 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $286 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $59 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $57 21h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 5¢ $10 21h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 21h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $62 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $52 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $48 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $172 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $64 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $122 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $96 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $87 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $113 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $16 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,263 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $73 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $451 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $282 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $297 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.05 · official $131.05 · 160 history records