Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac6…ade0 crypto 944 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$179 (-4%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%550W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day147.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$71
14 days−$107
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 428 -1.6% -10.9% 75% 40% -11.6%
≤30d 943 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 943 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 41% -12.7%
all 943 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 41% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 31% -21.0%
15% -30.3% 23% -28.7%
20% -37.2% 16% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses550 / 393
Open positions1
Markets (closed)943 / 944
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day147.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 943 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.84 (match) · 3500 history records