Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdacb…2a6a other 20 markets active 18h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.5% +13.5% 100% 50% +3.9%
≤30d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 90% 20% -16.8%
≤90d 18 +5.3% -4.8% 94% 22% -11.6%
all 18 +5.3% -4.8% 94% 22% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 22% -11.6%
10% -13.9% 6% -20.1%
15% -22.2% 6% -27.8%
20% -29.8% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$98 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage57d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $54 +$5 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $94 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $85 +$8 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $83 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $79 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $74 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 03 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $103 16d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $94 21d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 24d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $85 28d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $83 31d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $79 33d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 36d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 40d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 40d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 47d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 47d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 53d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 53d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 54d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 54d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.61 · official $20.61 (match) · 39 history records