Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdad4…df64 crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%101W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 102 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 102 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×33.69 per $1 lost it wins $33.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses101 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage74d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $117 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $85 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 14? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? Jun 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 11? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 10? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 8? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on May 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 30? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 30? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 30? May 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 28? May 27 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 26? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 26? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 24? May 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 24? May 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 23? May 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 19? May 18 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 6h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 6h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 13h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 24h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $55 29h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $53 30h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 35h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 35h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 36h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 38h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $116 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $116 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $116 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.44 · official $116.38 (match) · 286 history records