Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdad7…4af5 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$81 (+5%) realized +$95 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$242
sports 16% +$384
world 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 28% -6.1%
≤30d 18 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 28% -6.1%
≤90d 18 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 28% -6.1%
all 18 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 28% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -6.1%
10% -29.3% 28% -15.1%
15% -36.2% 28% -23.3%
20% -42.4% 22% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$59 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $115 −$112 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$40 -39%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $245 +$134 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $166 +$79 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $74 +$331 +447%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $115 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 20h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $62 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 43h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 44h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $245 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $166 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $58 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $405 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $70 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $74 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.25 · official $136.25 (match) · 29 history records