Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdad9…c300 crypto 351 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,570 (-1%) realized −$2,575 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%270W / 80L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$987est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days−$396
14 days+$1,752
30 days+$1,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,624
crypto 38% −$840
other 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -28.1% -35.0% 52% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 54 -13.0% -21.3% 57% 44% -6.4%
≤90d 181 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 36% -13.7%
all 350 -3.7% -12.9% 77% 27% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 27% -11.0%
10% -21.2% 14% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 7% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$689) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$256 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized−$2,575
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses270 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$987
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 351
History coverage109d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $812 $817 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $626 +$190 +30%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $202 −$50 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $131 +$7 +6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $429 +$103 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 25 $123 +$13 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $202 −$79 -39%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $550 +$80 +14%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $475 +$74 +16%
Set Handicap: Kjaer (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama Jun 24 $2,010 −$19 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $2,009 +$146 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $2,013 +$285 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery Jun 23 $1,006 +$147 +15%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Oeiras 4: Roman Safiullin vs Laslo Djere Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-29? Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda Jun 22 $262 −$262 -100%
Basket Zaragoza vs. Granada Jun 22 $302 −$302 -100%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 22 $374 −$374 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 22 $2,021 −$483 -24%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $1,005 +$112 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $2,833 +$91 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $3,124 +$718 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,539 +$20 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,004 −$723 -72%
Set 1 Winner: Navone vs Sonego Jun 21 $303 +$158 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3,134 +$535 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,817 +$318 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $302 +$98 +32%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $2,160 +$557 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,710 +$415 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $1,605 +$122 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,150 +$454 +40%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $986 +$164 +17%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $15 −$10 -67%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $517 +$358 +69%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $309 +$32 +10%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 02 $1,412 −$1,083 -77%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $249 −$94 -38%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $206 −$127 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $102 −$69 -67%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 01 $101 −$20 -20%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $24 +$23 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $305 +$86 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $1,644 +$339 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $1,247 +$403 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $816 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY 76¢ $626 23h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ $152 25h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 70¢ $202 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $138 44h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $532 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $131 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 90¢ $123 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 53¢ $79 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 31¢ $44 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $429 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 68¢ $202 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $550 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $550 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $475 2d
Set Handicap: Kjaer (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) BUY Dodig 55¢ $30 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama SELL Ashlyn Krueger 84¢ $1,991 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans SELL Roman Safiullin 91¢ $2,155 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Roman Safiullin 84¢ $2,009 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur SELL Yunchaokete Bu 91¢ $2,298 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama BUY Ashlyn Krueger 84¢ $2,010 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 79¢ $2,013 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery SELL Robin Montgomery 92¢ $1,153 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 80¢ $1,006 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel SELL Christopher OConnell 93¢ $1,117 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Jerome Kym 97¢ $2,833 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Christopher OConnell 83¢ $1,005 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier BUY Jaime Faria 81¢ $3,124 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,339 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $816.64 · official $816.64 (match) · 796 history records