Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xdada…bb70 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$74
crypto 16% +$24
sports 11% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -18.3%
≤30d 39 +24.0% +12.2% 46% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 39 +24.0% +12.2% 46% 46% -12.8%
all 39 +24.0% +12.2% 46% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 46% -12.8%
10% +1.4% 41% -21.1%
15% -8.4% 38% -28.8%
20% -17.3% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 +$17 +165%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $21 −$14 -70%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +304%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$22 +425%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$16 +760%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 92¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.12 · official $27.12 (match) · 71 history records