Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdadb…9182 crypto 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$320 (+2%) realized +$297 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%189W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days−$225
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$159
sports 3% +$79
weather 0% +$7
tech 0% −$22
world 0% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -2.7% -12.0% 61% 46% -11.2%
≤30d 292 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 50% -10.5%
≤90d 296 +4.0% -5.9% 64% 51% -10.4%
all 296 +4.0% -5.9% 64% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 51% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 37% -19.0%
15% -23.1% 26% -26.8%
20% -30.7% 18% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses189 / 107
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 298
History coverage44d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 59¢ 94¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$39 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$25 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$33 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$29 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$40 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$7 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$11 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 42m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 69¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 57m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.02 · official $93.02 (match) · 1196 history records