Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdadb…9bb7 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-22%) realized −$21 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$21
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -27.9% -34.8% 12% 12% -54.1%
≤30d 17 -27.9% -34.8% 12% 12% -54.1%
≤90d 17 -27.9% -34.8% 12% 12% -54.1%
all 17 -27.9% -34.8% 12% 12% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 12% -54.1%
10% -41.0% 12% -58.5%
15% -46.7% 12% -62.5%
20% -51.9% 6% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 70¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +982%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$11 -48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 40m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $10 42m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.09 · official $26.09 (match) · 28 history records