Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xdadb…1870
weather · 145 markets active 3h ago
3.5score
+$2,395 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,397 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$445
Realized+$2,397
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)133 / 145
Avg bet$59
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 11 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$364
14 days+$2,351
30 days+$2,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Germany 100¢ 100¢ $186 $186 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? No 99¢ 97¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao? No 99¢ 97¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? No 99¢ 97¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? No 99¢ 97¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 95¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 69¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Adam Hložek: 3+ goals Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $95 +$15 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $81 +$242 +297%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$61 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$31 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 +$44 +324%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $14 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $15 +$8 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$5 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$26 +388%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $263 +$80 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $118 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $41 −$39 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $76 −$4 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $66 +$360 +547%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $15 +$75 +514%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$50 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $106 +$50 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$426 +1849%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 04 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $267 +$115 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 +$10 +462%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $18 +$32 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$9 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$32 +520%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $104 +$33 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 84% +$2,377
other 9% +$110
sports 5% −$1
world 1% −$55
finance 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $29 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $101 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 43¢ $5 6h
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 6h
Adam Hložek: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $5 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $21 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $23 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $25 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $25 21h
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $186 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +24.5% +12.7% 63% 41% +41.1%
≤30d 88 +63.4% +47.9% 51% 38% +41.3%
≤90d 133 +44.5% +30.7% 50% 33% +16.4%
all 133 +44.5% +30.7% 50% 33% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.7% 33% +16.4%
10% +18.2% 27% +5.2%
15% +6.8% 23% -4.9%
20% -3.7% 18% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.68 · official $449.68 · 880 history records