Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xdadf…b1ed
culture · 23 markets active 75d ago
0.0score
+$1,113 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,113 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 23
Avg bet$187
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 0 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $429 $0 −$429 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 27? No 0¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $761 $0 −$761 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 29 $167 −$2 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $290 +$110 +38%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? Jan 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 05 $470 −$461 -98%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 05 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 01 $1,047 −$303 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 01 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 30 $290 +$218 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 27? Dec 27 $7 −$6 -78%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 26 $552 +$175 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 27? Dec 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 27? Dec 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Dec 25 $24 +$25 +107%
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Dec 25 $86 +$97 +113%
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for C Dec 25 $86 +$64 +74%
Will Santa deliver more than 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Dec 25 $505 +$333 +66%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Dec 24 $120 +$122 +102%
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for C Dec 24 $103 +$685 +668%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Dec 24 $33 +$26 +80%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 23 $40 +$229 +571%
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 22 $330 −$58 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 51% −$383
other 24% +$1,354
world 20% +$287
politics 4% −$2
crypto 1% −$60
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+84.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 10 -76.3% -78.6% 10% 10% -5.3%
all 31 +103.6% +84.2% 42% 39% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +84.2% 39% +16.7%
10% ← realistic here +66.6% 39% +5.5%
15% +50.5% 35% -4.7%
20% +35.7% 32% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records