Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdadf…0c4f other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$645 (+0%) realized +$645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,413per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days+$91
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$712
politics 40% −$86
sports 13% −$38
world 1% −$3
culture 1% +$27
crypto 1% +$3
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 6% -10.0%
all 134 +3.7% -6.2% 22% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 13% -9.2%
10% -15.2% 13% -17.9%
15% -23.4% 12% -25.8%
20% -30.9% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,116) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$13 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,413
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,507 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,522 −$6 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,872 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $341 +$7 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6,601 −$8 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,884 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,836 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $74 +$69 +93%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $897 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 05 $69 +$57 +83%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,833 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,984 −$3 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,990 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,096 −$3 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $515 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $717 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $3,016 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,954 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $4,908 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,706 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,470 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $2,491 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,342 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 3h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,260 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,262 26h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,519 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,521 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,538 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,541 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,526 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,528 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,528 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,530 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $341 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,503 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,505 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,426 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,428 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,415 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,417 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,523 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,525 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,526 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,528 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,518 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,520 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $897 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $74 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records