Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xdae0…f46e sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$350 (+24%) realized +$340 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+17.1%	+6.0%	70%	70%	+34.0%
≤30d	10	+17.1%	+6.0%	70%	70%	+34.0%
≤90d	10	+17.1%	+6.0%	70%	70%	+34.0%
all	10	+17.1%	+6.0%	70%	70%	+34.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.0%	70%	+34.0%
10%	-4.2%	70%	+21.2%
15%	-13.4%	70%	+9.5%
20%	-21.9%	30%	-1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$11 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.36 per $1 lost it wins $14.36

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$443

Realized+$340

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions6

Markets (closed)10 / 19

History coverage4d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$70	$71	+$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Under	56¢	50¢	$63	$56	−$7 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	74¢	$40	$52	+$12 (+31%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	63¢	66¢	$40	$42	+$2 (+6%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	41¢	42¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Hal	Jun 20	$49	+$48	+97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2	Jun 20	$46	+$59	+130%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$49	+$30	+61%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$208	+$95	+46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$207	+$96	+46%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$203	+$88	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$137	+$66	+48%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	49¢	$14	0m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	50¢	$41	2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	41¢	$20	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	63¢	$40	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	63¢	$40	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$41	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	25¢	$26	1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20	BUY	8¢	$21	6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	62¢	$18	13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	61¢	$30	13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$48	13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Hal	BUY	50¢	$49	27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2	BUY	43¢	$46	27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$208	27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams t	BUY	34¢	$53	47h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$207	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$203	3d
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	22¢	$4	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$137	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.04 · official $488.04 · 31 history records