Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdae0…836a sports 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,834 (+5%) realized +$1,834 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,159per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11,739
14 days+$11,739
30 days+$12,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,778
other 0% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.7% +4.7% 60% 60% +63.0%
≤30d 11 +30.6% +18.1% 64% 64% +62.5%
≤90d 16 +14.1% +3.3% 56% 56% +55.4%
all 31 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 45% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 45% -5.4%
10% -25.1% 45% -14.5%
15% -32.3% 45% -22.7%
20% -39.0% 45% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,400) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,313 vs −$986 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,834
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,159
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7,107 +$7,179 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $406 +$371 +91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 −$147 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6,085 +$5,236 +86%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$91 +90%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $102 +$167 +164%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $406 +$445 +110%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $406 +$386 +95%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 May 01 $152 −$150 -99%
Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $100 +$100 +100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $310 −$305 -98%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $400 −$394 -98%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $1,000 −$996 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $700 +$729 +104%
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $1,363 +$1,600 +117%
Gil Vicente FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Como 1907 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $139 +$139 +100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $193 +$209 +108%
Ipswich Town FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $1,755 −$1,755 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,000 +$818 +82%
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,015 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $150 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 7d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 19d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 19d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $103 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records