Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdae1…015a world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$9
other 33% −$2
politics 21% −$1
sports 11% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 -1.8% -11.1% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 39 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 3% -9.3%
all 51 +0.3% -9.2% 41% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage487d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $66 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $68 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $35 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $77 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $306 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $33 +$11 +32%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $240 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $268 −$1 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Creighton vs. Seton Hall Mar 03 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? Mar 03 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $35 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $23 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $4 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $31 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 10d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records