Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xdae5…fd08 crypto 896 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%604W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$147
14 days−$63
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$267
sports 8% −$138
other 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -8.2% -17.0% 56% 50% -19.8%
≤30d 117 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 50% -9.9%
≤90d 892 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 32% -11.6%
all 892 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 32% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 32% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 15% -20.1%
15% -28.6% 9% -27.8%
20% -35.6% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses604 / 288
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)892 / 896
History coverage76d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$29 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $111 +$36 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$27 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$20 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$13 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.87 · official $73.87 (match) · 2621 history records