Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdae6…96a5 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$134 (-32%) realized −$138 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$73
world 35% −$149
crypto 9% −$38
other 5% −$11
finance 1% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 33% +27.8%
≤30d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 33% +27.8%
≤90d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 33% +27.8%
all 25 -50.8% -55.5% 20% 20% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.5% 20% -45.0%
10% -59.8% 20% -50.3%
15% -63.6% 20% -55.1%
20% -67.2% 20% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage114d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 34¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $5 +$9 +172%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $36 +$95 +262%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 +$19 +114%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 15h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $21 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 20h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL No 100¢ $14 21h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 36¢ $5 23h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 28h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $36 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 42h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No $1 90d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes $1 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes $5 91d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? BUY No $4 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22? BUY Yes $3 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? BUY No $5 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 22? BUY Yes $5 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.89 · official $34.97 · 38 history records