Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DA 0xdaef…54e9 sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$192,724 (+38%) realized +$124,499 · open +$68,225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%68W / 329L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,514per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Fees−$5,154est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$217,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$29,376
other 26% +$26,207
world 7% +$36,150
crypto 6% +$3,967
politics 2% +$994
finance 0% −$2,843
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -47.4% -52.4% 15% 12% -46.0%
≤30d 380 -46.3% -51.4% 16% 12% -43.1%
≤90d 397 -46.3% -51.4% 17% 13% -42.5%
all 397 -46.3% -51.4% 17% 13% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.4% 13% -42.5%
10% -56.0% 12% -48.0%
15% ← realistic here -60.3% 11% -53.1%
20% -64.2% 10% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,997) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,296 vs −$1,270 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$217,299
Realized+$124,499
Unrealized+$68,225
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses68 / 329
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$5,154
Open positions32
Markets (closed)397 / 143
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$3,514
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $12,037 $31,773 +$19,735 (+164%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 57¢ 73¢ $23,419 $30,261 +$6,842 (+29%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 82¢ $14,819 $21,565 +$6,746 (+46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $9,758 $16,041 +$6,283 (+64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $5,541 $15,005 +$9,463 (+171%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 47¢ 84¢ $6,280 $11,208 +$4,928 (+78%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $8,870 $9,910 +$1,040 (+12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ 100¢ $6,596 $9,098 +$2,503 (+38%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $7,200 $8,750 +$1,550 (+22%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 74¢ 100¢ $5,949 $8,032 +$2,082 (+35%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ 100¢ $997 $7,327 +$6,330 (+635%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ 100¢ $3,726 $7,070 +$3,344 (+90%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 65¢ 74¢ $5,658 $6,532 +$874 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $6,643 $5,647 −$996 (-15%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $4,825 $4,750 −$75 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $4,016 $4,487 +$471 (+12%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $3,857 $4,349 +$492 (+13%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 100¢ $2,074 $4,130 +$2,056 (+99%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 53¢ 44¢ $4,840 $4,064 −$776 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $2,750 $1,850 −$900 (-33%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ 26¢ $1,600 $1,275 −$325 (-20%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $960 $958 −$2 (-0%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No 63¢ 90¢ $530 $761 +$231 (+44%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $3,375 $532 −$2,843 (-84%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 34¢ $469 $524 +$55 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Jun 17 $1,209 −$1,209 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Jun 17 $388 −$388 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 17 $920 −$920 -100%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $1,011 −$997 -99%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,114 −$828 -74%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,357 −$2,357 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 Jun 17 $299 −$280 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6? Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$83 +500%
Will 0 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jun 17 $1,006 −$1,009 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Jun 17 $1,493 −$1,493 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 17 $0 +$2,833 +1082820%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $1,016 −$746 -73%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $557 −$567 -102%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 17 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 17 $789 −$789 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 17 $319 −$198 -62%
Senators vs. Islanders Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $594 −$594 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 17 $1,373 −$1,373 -100%
Rangers vs. Stars Jun 17 $385 −$385 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Jun 17 $333 −$333 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Jun 17 $212 −$458 -216%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 7 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jun 17 $91 −$115 -127%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 17 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5) Jun 17 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 17 $45 +$654 +1464%
Jets vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 17 $3,772 −$3,772 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 17 $1,331 −$1,076 -81%
Spread: Thunder (-19.5) Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Jun 17 $1,580 −$1,580 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Jun 17 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 17 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Hornets vs. Knicks Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 17 $967 +$1,923 +199%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 17 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $2 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $72 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $44 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $2 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $25 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $14 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $2 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $106 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $2 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $14 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $106 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $14 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $14 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $72 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $15 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $6 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $2,280 5m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $60 6m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $10 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $855 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $265 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $1,072 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $1 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $66 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $178 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $3 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $3 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $18 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $7 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $328 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217,298.87 · official $217,434.38 (match) · 3500 history records