Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xdaef…9efa sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9
other 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.6% -35.4% 40% 20% -1.3%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 54% +3.8%
≤90d 24 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 46% -11.5%
all 24 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 46% -11.5%
10% -26.8% 33% -20.0%
15% -33.8% 25% -27.7%
20% -40.3% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage72d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $57 +$7 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $55 +$5 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $41 +$15 +37%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $50 −$3 -7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $32 +$13 +40%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $28 +$4 +14%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $24 +$4 +17%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $22 +$7 +30%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $2 +$2 +97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $37 −$11 -31%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $14 +$11 +79%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $36 −$34 -92%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $9 −$9 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $14 −$14 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $9 −$6 -64%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $3 +$4 +128%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 07 $4 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $65 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $57 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 34¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $0 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $59 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $23 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $30 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 13¢ $1 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 37¢ $1 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 33¢ $1 4d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $57 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 89¢ $25 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 56¢ $15 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $1 17d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 98¢ $40 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 33¢ $6 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $10 19d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $45 21d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 71¢ $32 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $32 22d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 87¢ $28 22d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 85¢ $24 24d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 46¢ $5 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $29 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 76¢ $22 27d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $4 29d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Rajasthan Royals 50¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records