Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdaf2…c3e2 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+4%) realized +$59 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$90
crypto 10% −$39
other 1% −$9
finance 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.4% -24.3% 70% 45% -2.1%
≤30d 20 -16.4% -24.3% 70% 45% -2.1%
≤90d 20 -16.4% -24.3% 70% 45% -2.1%
all 22 -19.4% -27.1% 64% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 41% -3.6%
10% -34.1% 9% -12.8%
15% -40.4% 5% -21.3%
20% -46.3% 5% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage159d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 91¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-42%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $94 +$5 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $85 +$11 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $91 +$3 +3%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $57 +$4 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $46 +$3 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $41 +$5 +11%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $85 +$14 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$10 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $32 +$7 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $52 +$10 +19%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $48 +$4 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18? Jan 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 12 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $99 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $93 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $5 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $15 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $76 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $85 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $94 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 16h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL Australia 98¢ $1 16h
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL Australia 98¢ $61 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $49 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $46 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $46 17h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 91¢ $43 18h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 91¢ $10 18h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 91¢ $5 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $41 18h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes $2 22h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $72 26h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $13 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $42 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $62 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $52 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.63 · official $125.69 (match) · 62 history records