Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaf2…dfa9 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$475 (-11%) realized −$431 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%55W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$345
14 days−$359
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$66
crypto 38% −$190
other 7% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 113 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 113 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 40% -17.4%
all 113 +2.2% -7.5% 49% 40% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 40% -17.4%
10% -16.4% 34% -25.3%
15% -24.5% 26% -32.5%
20% -31.9% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$431
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses55 / 58
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 120
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 30¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 18¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$40 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $77 +$91 +119%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $175 −$28 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$13 +73%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$27 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 +$200 +272%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $44 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$67 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$13 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $56 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $20 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $100 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $30 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $42 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $7 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $38 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $16 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $18 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $18 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $15 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $0 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $7 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 18¢ $18 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $18 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $20 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $20 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5 BUY 9¢ $21 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY 41¢ $74 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 26¢ $74 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will France vs. BUY 9¢ $39 36h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 36h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.77 · official $37.68 · 271 history records