Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DA 0xdaf6…5e24 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$21
other 17% −$2
politics 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 25 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 7% -9.4%
all 86 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage484d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $158 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 39¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 62¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $229 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1,474 −$4 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $380 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $132 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $186 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $453 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $372 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $171 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $396 −$6 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $76 +$51 +68%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $171 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $360 −$34 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $360 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $93 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $192 +$3 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 13 $1,358 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $1,030 −$5 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 10 $1 $0 -31%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 07 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $148 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $88 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $88 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $98 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $106 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $112 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $154 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $138 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $143 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $55 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $55 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $175 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $66 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $109 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $192 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $192 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.71 · official $158.18 (match) · 340 history records