Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaf9…dba5 crypto 555 markets active 3d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,181 (-5%) realized −$3,175 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%346W / 192L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$53
14 days−$1,799
30 days−$2,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,332
politics 0% +$133
sports 0% +$264
finance 0% −$16
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 41% -15.4%
≤30d 173 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 43% -18.7%
≤90d 538 -0.8% -10.2% 64% 45% -16.6%
all 538 -0.8% -10.2% 64% 45% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 45% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 31% -24.6%
15% -26.7% 21% -31.9%
20% -33.8% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$71 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3,175
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses346 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)538 / 555
History coverage49d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$37 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$69 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$29 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $196 −$89 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $73 +$73 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $451 −$272 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $203 +$27 +14%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 05 $112 −$35 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $84 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $123 +$63 +52%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $84 −$53 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $152 −$24 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $92 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$37 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $40 +$2 +4%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $518 −$495 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $518 +$150 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 04 $516 +$48 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $511 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $1,007 −$364 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $1,064 −$230 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $615 −$50 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 04 $528 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $718 +$142 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $72 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.15 · official $14.15 (match) · 2411 history records