Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdafa…9f46 crypto 494 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$339 (-3%) realized −$494 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%232W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$10
14 days−$23
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$657
world 29% +$327
other 8% +$58
sports 7% −$173
tech 1% −$57
culture 1% −$60
politics 1% −$51
economics 1% +$14
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 71% 36% -13.3%
≤30d 107 +31.4% +18.8% 54% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 409 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 43% -18.0%
all 461 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 44% -17.2%
10% -16.0% 34% -25.1%
15% -24.1% 25% -32.3%
20% -31.5% 16% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$1,153
Realized−$494
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses232 / 229
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions33
Markets (closed)461 / 494
History coverage200d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $172 $180 +$8 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $108 $129 +$21 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $108 $125 +$17 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $49 $79 +$30 (+61%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $117 $60 −$58 (-49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 10¢ $73 $16 −$57 (-78%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $42 $15 −$27 (-65%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 36¢ 6¢ $39 $6 −$33 (-83%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-76%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $15 +$20 +130%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $39 −$26 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $15 −$13 -83%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $55 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1 +$17 +1710%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $133 +$130 +98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $44 −$11 -25%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$12 +80%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $803 +$96 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$6 -69%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -74%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $247 −$205 -83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 −$41 -77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $54 +$15 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $5 +$2 +47%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 29 $11 +$3 +27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $26 +$51 +197%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $31 −$3 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $28 +$39 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $212 −$12 -6%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $5 +$3 +67%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $6 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $3 +$8 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $4 +$3 +73%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $38 +$36 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $6 +$4 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $217 +$25 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $76 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $35 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $70 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $238 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.26 · official $1,152.50 (match) · 2523 history records