Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xdafb…628a crypto 1261 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$596 (-2%) realized −$575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%1195W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$567
sports 2% −$4
other 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -9.0% -17.7% 86% 5% -22.1%
≤30d 88 -9.2% -17.8% 85% 5% -22.3%
≤90d 1052 -1.7% -11.0% 94% 4% -12.1%
all 1259 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 3% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 2% -19.6%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1195 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1259 / 1261
History coverage94d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Wilson Isidor: 3+ shots on target Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 1+ shots Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Aaron Hickey: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Ruben Providence: 2+ assists Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Game Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Vitality (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY No 100¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $7 7h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 8h
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $10 9h
Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 100¢ $1 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $10 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 22h
Wilson Isidor: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.66 · official $28.66 (match) · 3500 history records