Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdafd…2072 sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-5%) realized −$77 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%143W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$6
sports 37% −$151
other 11% −$18
weather 1% −$39
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.6% +20.8% 50% 50% +23.4%
≤30d 10 +23.3% +11.6% 50% 50% +13.8%
≤90d 195 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 41% -17.0%
all 298 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 46% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 46% -14.0%
10% -22.3% 44% -22.2%
15% -29.8% 41% -29.8%
20% -36.7% 38% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses143 / 155
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)298 / 301
History coverage343d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$27 +262%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $31 +$58 +189%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 +$41 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $16 −$16 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 15 $3 −$2 -46%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Oeiras 3: Max Houkes vs Zdenek Kolar Apr 16 $8 +$9 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Brandon Nakashima vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Apr 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 13 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$9 -85%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Leeds United FC? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 13 $67 +$68 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 12 $22 −$14 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 13? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 13? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 12 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 12 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 11 $54 +$35 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 11 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 11 $33 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $30 2h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $31 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $16 22d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 33d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 33d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 41¢ $2 33d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 33d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 33d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 61d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 61d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 75¢ $3 61d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 61d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 61d
Brandon Nakashima vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 46¢ $10 64d
Oeiras 3: Max Houkes vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Max Houkes 45¢ $8 64d
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca BUY Alejandro Tabilo 28¢ $15 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 64d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 64d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 64d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 64d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.31 · official $30.31 (match) · 624 history records