Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdafd…b52b sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 634d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$105 (-2%) realized −$102 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$121
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$137
other 0% +$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +67.2% +51.3% 71% 71% -12.2%
≤30d 21 +67.2% +51.3% 71% 71% -12.2%
≤90d 21 +67.2% +51.3% 71% 71% -12.2%
all 27 +30.1% +17.7% 56% 56% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 56% -12.4%
10% +6.4% 56% -20.8%
15% -3.9% 33% -28.4%
20% -13.3% 26% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$121 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage634d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $181 +$50 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $182 +$122 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $183 −$180 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $181 −$180 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $84 +$59 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $84 +$23 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $82 +$60 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $81 +$20 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $166 +$66 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$91 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $483 +$124 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $484 −$478 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 +$69 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$262 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $253 +$126 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 +$201 +79%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1308%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $179 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $179 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $182 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $181 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $183 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $181 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $84 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $84 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $82 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $81 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $166 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $607 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $484 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $483 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $405 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $203 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $202 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $253 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $253 4d
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $1 634d
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $1 634d
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $1 634d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 634d
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 634d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 634d
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 634d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.12 · official $351.12 (match) · 44 history records