Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xdaff…5aa5 politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 37% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 18 -0.0% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage135d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $89 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $87 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $87 35d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $87 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 43d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $87 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $87 48d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 66d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 66d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $88 68d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 69d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 69d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 72d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 72d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 76d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 77d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 85d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 86d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $89 94d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $89 94d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $89 98d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 98d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records