Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb03…9732 sports 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,658 (-6%) realized −$2,666 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%213W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$345
14 days+$280
30 days+$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,551
other 48% −$1,343
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$40
politics 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.8% +11.1% 63% 59% +4.7%
≤30d 68 +23.0% +11.3% 66% 63% +12.8%
≤90d 389 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 51% -14.8%
all 417 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 51% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 51% -16.0%
10% -22.3% 50% -24.1%
15% -29.8% 49% -31.4%
20% -36.7% 45% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$94 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized−$2,666
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses213 / 204
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions4
Markets (closed)417 / 421
History coverage94d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 74¢ $125 $151 +$26 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$77 +101%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$90 +119%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$53 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$68 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $136 −$135 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 +$80 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $75 +$35 +47%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$71 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $66 +$100 +152%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $76 +$68 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 +$94 +124%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$102 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$80 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$71 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $76 +$67 +88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $66 −$65 -98%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5) May 31 $66 −$65 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $127 +$109 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $127 +$114 +90%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $76 +$56 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $66 −$65 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $66 +$54 +83%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? May 25 $76 +$31 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $137 +$92 +67%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 +$43 +57%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 +$125 +188%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $66 −$47 -71%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 24 $66 +$38 +57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 +$72 +109%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $66 +$48 +73%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 +$56 +73%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Who will finish higher: Perez or Bottas? May 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 −$65 -98%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 +$61 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $126 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $76 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $76 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $31 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $136 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $136 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $36 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $126 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $110 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $76 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $66 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $75 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $76 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $76 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $66 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $76 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $76 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $111 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $76 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 100¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.01 · official $362.98 (match) · 830 history records