Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb04…7abf other 61 markets active 16h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$476 (-25%) realized −$476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$487
14 days−$487
30 days−$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$297
sports 36% −$141
crypto 11% −$45
world 5% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -36.0% -42.1% 28% 26% -36.3%
≤30d 46 -36.0% -42.1% 28% 26% -36.3%
≤90d 46 -36.0% -42.1% 28% 26% -36.3%
all 61 -23.5% -30.8% 31% 26% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 26% -34.9%
10% -37.4% 20% -41.1%
15% -43.5% 20% -46.8%
20% -49.0% 16% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage141d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $27 −$24 -89%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $123 +$76 +62%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $99 −$66 -67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$96 -93%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 +$11 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$10 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $94 −$39 -41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$43 -61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$11 -18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +22%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +356%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$56 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$21 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$17 -82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$14 -29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 30 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 30 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 35h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $18 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $99 40h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $99 40h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $70 40h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 44h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $60 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records