Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdb04…8b26 other 62 markets active 3d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$44 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$38
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$68
weather 33% +$50
sports 27% +$14
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 57% -9.8%
≤30d 46 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 43% -4.6%
≤90d 46 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 43% -4.6%
all 46 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 43% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 43% -4.6%
10% -2.9% 41% -13.7%
15% -12.3% 39% -22.1%
20% -20.9% 37% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)46 / 62
History coverage12d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $21 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$20 +99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$82 +786%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +196%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $15 +$19 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$80 +766%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $10 +$5 +48%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 +$10 +63%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $27 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 98¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 61¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.14 · official $167.34 (match) · 103 history records