Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb0a…dfd7 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$156 (+3%) realized +$170 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate55%61W / 49L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1
politics 29% −$1
crypto 21% +$83
sports 9% +$26
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 7 -10.1% -18.7% 29% 0% -10.5%
all 110 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 8% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 8% -7.0%
10% -17.8% 5% -15.9%
15% -25.7% 3% -24.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses61 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage527d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $771 $757 −$14 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $849 −$10 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $166 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Midtjylland win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will PAOK win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brann win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ludogorets win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will GNK Dinamo win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Genk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $144 +$1 +0%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will FCSB win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Young Boys win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $43 +$23 +54%
Will M. Tel-Aviv win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Dec 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Utrecht win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Dec 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Malmö win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Dec 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Oct 09 $90 +$18 +20%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Koln win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hamburger SV win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will St Pauli win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $148 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $793 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $796 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $380 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $469 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $184 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $42 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.62 · official $756.62 (match) · 485 history records