Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb14…33f1 weather 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%78W / 4L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$4
crypto 30% +$2
other 18% +$7
culture 5% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.8% 71% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.1%
all 82 +1.2% -8.4% 95% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses78 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage251d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 23? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 27°C or below on May 17? May 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 15? May 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $56 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on April 26 Apr 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on Apri Apr 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on April 21? Apr 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Apr 20 $56 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 16? Apr 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 14? Apr 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 10? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on April 6 Apr 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Seoul have less than 30mm of precipitation in March? Apr 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March Mar 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 22? Mar 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on March 16? Mar 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this w Mar 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on Feb Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 19? Feb 20 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on February 16? Feb 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 9 Feb 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 5? Feb 09 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on January 30? Feb 04 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on Jan Jan 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 26 $132 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ja Jan 17 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? Jan 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 6? Jan 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 1? Jan 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on Ja Jan 06 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 21? Jan 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on De Jan 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 11? Dec 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Dec Dec 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on December 1 Dec 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 4? Dec 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 5? Dec 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 4? Dec 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 3? Dec 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will "A Merry Little Ex-Mas" be the top global Netflix movie this week Dec 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 3 Dec 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $61 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $61 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $61 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 27°C or below on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $61 33d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $61 35d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $56 43d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $56 52d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on April 26 BUY No 100¢ $56 54d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on Apri BUY No 100¢ $56 56d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $56 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? BUY No 99¢ $56 62d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $56 64d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 66d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $56 71d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on April 6 BUY No 100¢ $56 74d
Will Seoul have less than 30mm of precipitation in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 81d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March BUY No 100¢ $55 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $55 88d
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $55 95d
Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this w BUY No 100¢ $55 105d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on Feb BUY No 100¢ $55 111d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $55 113d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.69 · official $60.50 (match) · 163 history records