Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdb15…fad9
sports · 370 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,048 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,161 · open +$113
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,662
Realized−$3,161
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses214 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions25
Markets (closed)345 / 370
History coverage27d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 25 History 345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,352
7 days−$1,498
14 days−$3,522
30 days−$3,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $506 $543 +$37 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $156 $175 +$19 (+12%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $113 $116 +$2 (+2%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 97¢ 90¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+5%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title? No 93¢ 88¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-5%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 49¢ 66¢ $39 $52 +$13 (+34%)
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 51¢ 71¢ $36 $50 +$14 (+39%)
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $24 $37 +$13 (+54%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+49%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+32%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 21¢ 29¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 90¢ 89¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) United States 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 −$7 -65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $110 +$14 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $230 +$13 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $64 −$17 -27%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $30 −$24 -80%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $60 −$45 -74%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $106 +$8 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $420 −$420 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $879 −$879 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $76 +$10 +13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $200 +$3 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $11 −$5 -50%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $20 +$5 +22%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $48 −$36 -75%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $151 −$137 -91%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $28 +$14 +51%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $130 +$13 +10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $834 −$148 -18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $2,549 +$196 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $30 +$4 +15%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $135 +$8 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $116 −$30 -26%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $85 −$48 -57%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $36 +$5 +15%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $80 +$6 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $206 +$6 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $282 −$37 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% −$1,176
politics 26% +$89
crypto 5% −$1,789
world 4% −$238
other 3% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 2m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 69¢ $10 3m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $20 3m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 23¢ $4 5m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $132 17m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 23m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $65 41m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $231 51m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $243 51m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 54m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 13¢ $6 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $100 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $16 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $30 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $100 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 96¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 85¢ $5 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 99¢ $30 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 96¢ $30 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 93¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 97¢ $100 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 90¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 6¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $50 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 23¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 90¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 36% -24.5%
≤30d 345 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 35% -18.0%
≤90d 345 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 35% -18.0%
all 345 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 35% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 35% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 21% -25.8%
15% -32.7% 15% -33.0%
20% -39.3% 10% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,662.08 · official $1,660.57 (match) · 1518 history records