Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb19…8fe6 politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$19
other 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage638d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 20 Feb 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will National Citizen Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parli Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Paul lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Micah Parsons win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 500-749 men in a day? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will $MOG be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michigan win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 15h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 27d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 46d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $51 50d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 51d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 55d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 56d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 56d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 71d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 72d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 73d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 73d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 75d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 75d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $52 77d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $52 78d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 84d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 84d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 93d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $52 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records