Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb1b…efb5 other 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 214d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,666 (+7%) realized +$27,636 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate70%250W / 109L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$5,847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 215d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$22,081
tech 10% −$356
world 8% −$5,410
politics 4% −$3,494
economics 3% +$500
finance 2% −$448
weather 1% −$487
sports 0% −$1,050
crypto 0% +$59
culture 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.2% -33.2% 44% 6% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 69 -14.3% -22.5% 52% 20% -3.5%
all 359 +6.0% -4.1% 70% 21% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 21% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 14% -16.2%
15% -21.6% 9% -24.3%
20% -29.3% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,059) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$295 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$5,847
Realized+$27,636
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses250 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)359 / 361
History coverage215d ⚠
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5,580 $5,610 +$30 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $237 $237 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $224 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $71 +$4 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $774 +$121 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5,906 +$148 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $584 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $52 −$46 -89%
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -47%
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 12 $554 −$174 -32%
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Jun 12 $166 −$30 -18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $54 −$46 -86%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $2,042 +$4 +0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $1,107 +$20 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $471 +$8 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $49 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 01 $2,040 +$39 +2%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 16 $414 −$186 -45%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 07 $1,500 +$343 +23%
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 07 $868 +$11 +1%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 05 $523 +$7 +1%
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 05 $1,616 +$30 +2%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $627 −$73 -12%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 27 $789 −$54 -7%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 27 $276 −$60 -22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 26 $90 −$16 -18%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $1,729 +$64 +4%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? Apr 21 $64 +$10 +16%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 21 $105 +$455 +434%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Apr 21 $249 +$79 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 15 $890 +$30 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 10 $69 +$103 +150%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 08 $848 +$16 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 07 $1,884 +$223 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Apr 03 $74 −$9 -12%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $3,721 +$1,509 +41%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 31 $0 $0 -98%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 31 $139 −$138 -100%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 31 $347 −$115 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 31 $34 −$11 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $272 −$272 -100%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 30 $602 +$43 +7%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 30 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? Mar 28 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026? Mar 28 $59 −$57 -96%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $118 −$107 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $237 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $224 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $224 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $5,580 37h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 99¢ $948 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 93¢ $38 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 93¢ $558 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 99¢ $493 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 67¢ $324 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 94¢ $71 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,906 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 55¢ $269 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,555 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $212 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL Yes $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes $6 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 38¢ $260 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,846.88 · official $5,846.88 (match) · 3500 history records