Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb1c…e437 crypto 719 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%491W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% +2.3%
≤30d 46 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% +2.3%
≤90d 718 -0.7% -10.1% 68% 68% -10.1%
all 718 -0.7% -10.1% 68% 68% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 68% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 68% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 40% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 17% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses491 / 227
Open positions1
Markets (closed)718 / 719
History coverage128d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 60¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.26 · official $3.26 (match) · 1554 history records