Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb1e…186d crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-5%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%181W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$37
other 4% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.9% -7.8% 81% 47% -2.9%
≤30d 36 +1.9% -7.8% 81% 47% -2.9%
≤90d 293 -18.1% -25.9% 58% 36% -16.5%
all 305 -16.0% -24.0% 59% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 38% -16.0%
10% -31.3% 22% -24.0%
15% -37.9% 13% -31.4%
20% -44.0% 8% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses181 / 124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage92d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 15 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1197 history records