Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb21…125f crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2
politics 29% −$2
sports 22% −$29
economics 11% −$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -46.1%
all 41 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage369d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 6? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 2-8? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in April 2026? Mar 06 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $628 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 22? Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? Jan 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 December 15-21? Jan 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 21? Dec 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 8? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 07 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Oct 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k August 11–17? Sep 19 $4 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sepp Kuss win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $25 1h
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 14¢ $8 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $20 36d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 82d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $130 91d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 91d
Will Ohio State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 100¢ $120 99d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 99d
Will Ohio State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 99d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 110d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $659 110d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 110d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $660 110d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $664 110d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $11 110d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $649 110d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $625 114d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 114d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $2 114d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 114d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $595 114d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $620 114d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 114d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 154d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? SELL No 100¢ $26 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.95 · official $44.95 (match) · 110 history records