Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb25…f567 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$781 (+18%) realized +$781 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$820
14 days+$820
30 days+$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$841
other 31% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 58% +8.8%
≤30d 24 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 58% +8.8%
≤90d 24 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 58% +8.8%
all 24 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 58% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 58% +8.8%
10% -11.2% 46% -1.6%
15% -19.8% 46% -11.1%
20% -27.6% 29% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$75 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $254 +$243 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$95 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $386 +$306 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 −$350 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +221%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $92 +$236 +256%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,095 +$13 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$145 +95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $253 −$53 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $137 +$57 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$55 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $151 +$65 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $303 +$149 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $497 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 35¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $102 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $40 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $692 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $81 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR BUY $6 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $41 29h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $33 40h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $328 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records